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Publications
Guedes Soares, C. (1990), “Effect of Spectral Shape Uncertainty in the Short Term Wave-Induced Ship Responses”, Applied Ocean Research, Vol. 12, Issue 2, pp. 54-69
The sources of fundamental, statistical and model uncertainty in the spectral description of wave elevation in a stationary sea state are identified and model uncertainty in the spectral description of wave elevation in a stationary sea state are identified and modelled probabilistically. Theoretical models are developed to quantify the uncertainty in the response variance due to the uncertainty of the spectrum shape. The formulation is applicable to any type of response such as motions, acceleration, forces and load effects, i.e., shear forces and bending moments and to any type of marine structure subjected wave action. Various common formulations are examined and the model uncertainty is quantified in each case. Example calculations are performed for tanker and a container ship in different conditions. It is shown that the bias involved in always using the Pierson-Moskowitz spectral model is negligible in most cases but it can be significant for long ship in low and moderate sea states, in which double peaked spectra occur more often.
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