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Publications
Lopatoukhin, L., Boukhanovsky, A.V. and Guedes Soares, C. (2005) , "Hindcasting and forecasting the probability of freak waves occurrence", Maritime Transportation and Exploitation of Ocean and Coastal Resources, Guedes Soares, C., Garbatov, Y. and Fonseca, N. (Eds.), Francis & Taylor Group, Lisbon, Portugal, Vol. 2, pp. 1075-1080
The mechanics that may lead to freak or abnormal waves are considered and the parameters that characterize these waves are identified. The problem of statistical description of freak waves is discussed and a probabilistic model for freak wave occurrence is proposed. The concept of adjusting five different classes of climatic spectra is introduced as a way of summarising the characteristics of hindcast sea states over large areas and long time periods. The possibility to predict a freak wave occurrence related with very rare transition between classes of climatic spectra is proposed. Application of this concept to sets of measured data shows some support to this hypothesis. A method is proposed to be used in wave forecasts to serve as warning of the probability of freak wave occurrence.
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