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Publications
Clarindo, G. and Guedes Soares, C. (2024), Uncertainty assessment of direct Monte Carlo contours due to the sample variability, Advances in Maritime Technology and Engineering, Guedes Soares, C. & Santos T.A. (Eds.), Taylor and Francis, London, UK, pp. 617-625.
The uncertainty evaluation of a direct method to derive environmental contours is stated. The characterization of the environmental observations at sea is computed due to the sample variability leading to the important sources of uncertainty. The sample variability is based on 5, 10 and 15 years of sample for location A and 1, 5 and 25 for location B. Direct simulations are employed to construct environmental contour for return periods of 20 and 50 years following a fitted model. For this task, a bootstrap technique is performed. The distribution of significant wave heights is based on the Weibull three parameters model. The dependence of wave periods (location A) and near-surface wind velocity (location B) are based on the Lognormal and Weibull two parameters, respectively. The quantification and illustration of uncertainties are based on confidence intervals calculated from the several bootstrapped contours samples.
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