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Publications
D'Agostini, A., Campos, R.M. and Guedes Soares, C. (2024), Assessments of multiple metocean forecasts in the North Atlantic Ocean, Ocean Engineering, Vol. 312, 119199
Accurate wind and wave forecasts are crucial for a variety of marine operations, including ship design, navigation safety, and engineering. This study evaluates the predictability of wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean using both deterministic and ensemble forecast models. A dataset of 29 deep water Bbuoys data in deep waters is was used to validate deterministic and ensemble forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Environment Canada, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the German Weather Service. A comparison between the performance of deterministic forecast and ensemble forecast performance is was conducted using eight statistical metrics and the errors focusing on of significant wave heights associated with 10-m wind speed are analyzed and discussed. The results indicate that ensemble models exhibit higher correlation coefficients and lower scatter root mean square error, especially beyond the 7th forecast day, outperforming deterministic models. Our findings suggest that ensemble forecasts offer a more reliable estimation of forecast, enhancing predictability for marine operations.
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