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Publications
Bhardwaj, U., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2023), Uncertainty in estimation of partial safety factors for different steel-grade corroded pipelines, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol. 11, 177
This paper assesses the uncertainty on the partial safety factor’s calculation for the design of corroded pipelines against burst failure with the objective of evaluating the variability associated to strength model selection. First, 10 calibrated burst pressure prediction models for corroded pipelines are adopted, dully categorized under low, medium and high grade steels class. The probabilistic characteristics of the pipe burst strength is studied using Monte Carlo simulation for the selected models. Model uncertainties factors are used to correct the burst pressure predictions by the design equations. Model correction factors are derived for models in each category that will provide coherent reliability. The First-Order Reliability method is employed to estimate the partial safety factors and their uncertainty as a function of operational time. Finally, the influence of corrosion growth model on the evaluation of partial safety factors is also assessed. The results obtained in this study can provide vital guidance regarding the design and maintenance of different steel-grade pipelines.
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