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Publications
Bernardino, M., Gonçalves, M., Campos, R.M. and Guedes Soares, C. (2023), Extremes and variability of wind and waves across the oceans until the end of the 21st century, Ocean Engineering, Vol. 275, 114081
The wave model WAVEWATCHIII is forced with global wind and ice-cover data from an RCP8.5 EC-Earth system integration for a total of 120 years, until the end of the 21st century, covering all ocean areas. The total period is divided into four 30-year time slices, where the first one (1980-2009) represents the present climate, the second (2010-2039) the near future, the third (2040-2069) the mid-century and finally the last one (2070-2099) represents the end of the 20th century. For each period, the mean value, the standard deviation and the 99th percentile are computed for significant wave height of total sea (Hs) and wave energy (E) and for the 10-meters wind magnitude field, used to force the wave model. Changes from the present climate to each of the three future periods are obtained and analysed. The results obtained are consistent with other authors’ results, showing an increase in mean Hs and wave energy in the South Atlantic, together with an increase in variability and a decrease of mean Hs in the North Atlantic. Other regions also present changes but are less marked and less consistent through time
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