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Publications
Bhardwaj, U., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2022), “Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty”, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 218, 108143.
This paper assesses the reliability of two conceptual subsea processing systems by estimating the failure rate of their constituent equipment based on data available for similar, known offshore topside equipment. A suitable reliability prediction method for mechanical equipment is selected and then illustrated stepwise to estimate the total failure rate of the main constituent subsea equipment. First, a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis is conducted, then the main Reliability Influencing Factors on equipment failure are identified and the corresponding influence diagram is developed. Reliability data from the Offshore and Onshore Reliability Data handbook is utilized to demonstrate the importance of this study for comparing failure rate of topside and subsea processing systems’ equipment.
Among the significant contributions of the present study, several system reliability scenarios are simulated to assess the effect of the Reliability Influencing Factors on the reliability predictions. Later, two Bayesian network models are developed that relate Reliability Influencing Factors to equipment failure and subsequently subsea processing systems failure. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to evaluate relative importance of Reliability Influencing Factors.
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