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Publications
Vettor, R. and Guedes Soares, C. (2022) , “Reflecting the uncertainties of ensemble weather forecasts on the predictions of ship fuel consumption”, Ocean Engineering, Vol. 250, 111009.
This work investigates different methodologies for the prediction of uncertainties related to ship fuel consumption along a specific route. Ensemble weather forecasts are adopted to estimate the uncertainties associated with the environmental conditions the ship is asked to face. A brute-force approach, consisting in repeating the fuel consumption predictions for each member of the ensemble, is compared with probabilistic approaches in which the wave parameters are modelled according to truncated-normal and lognormal distributions, as well as with a more classical first-order second-moment method. Finally, the results obtained by the different approaches for the North Atlantic passage of a containership are compared, showing reasonable agreement, with the actual fuel consumption falling within the 90 % prediction range for all methods.
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