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Publications
D'Agostini, A., Bernardino, M. and Guedes Soares, C. (2022), “Projected wave storm conditions under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario in the North Atlantic Ocean”, Ocean Engineering, Vol. 266, 112874.
The projected future wave storm conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated using a Lagrangian methodology applied to a 120 years (1980-2100) dataset resulting from a run of the WAVEWATCH III model forced by EC-Earth winds and ice cover under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Several wave storm temporal-spatial characteristics are analysed, among them the number of storms, storm maximum significant wave height (HSmax), maximum storm area, storm area associated with HSmax, storm track distribution and duration. When comparing storm conditions by the end of the 21st century (2070-2100) with the historical period (1980-2010), there is a decrease in the number of storms, although more intense events occur, i.e., with higher HSmax. The storm track distribution differs in the mid-latitude regions, with a significant decrease in the number of storm tracks, and a significant increase in latitudes above 65°N by the end of the 21st century. The differences between the two periods are more expressive in the winter season.
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