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Publications
Bhardwaj, U., Teixeira, A.P., Guedes Soares, C., Ariffin, A.K. and Singh, S.S. (2021), “Evidence based risk analysis of Fire and Explosion accident scenarios in FPSO”, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 215, 107904.
This paper presents a methodology for the risk assessment of fire and explosion accidents in FPSOs using Bayesian Network model based on evidences obtained from accident reports and expert opinions. The model uses a framework based on immediate causes, basic causes and causal factors that demonstrate various accidental scenarios specific to FPSOs. The contribution of the present study is threefold: a methodology for comprehensive risk assessment in FPSO is proposed; FPSO specific incidents and accidents are characterized; model for fire and explosion scenario is developed from the causal framework.
A data set of around 800 incidents in FPSO, from various open source agencies, is prepared and evaluated. The key features of incidents are discussed and the relation among significant variables influencing the types of incidents is tested by the Chi-square method. Circumstances of potential incidents related to fire and explosion are discussed.
Later, a detail risk analysis is conducted using risk matrix to screen and rank major accidents occurring (around 100 cases) in FPSOs. Consequently, the riskiest accident of fire and explosion is illustrated with Bayesian Network, summarizing the occurrence of accident from its causes. The literature composed of accident investigation reports, technical magazines, and research papers provides understanding, evidential contributing factors and real-time frequency of occurrence of the basic causes. The probabilities of fire and explosion occurrence are calculated by fault tree, Bayesian model and Bayesian model with uncertain data. By means of running sensitivity analysis of the model, the areas that need more research for decision making are defined. The results may inform FPSO developers and operators to avoid and control accidents.
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