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Publications
Campos, R.M., Gonçalves, M. and Guedes Soares, C. (2021), “Assessment of Hurricane Lorenzo metocean forecast”, Developments in Maritime Technology and Engineering, Guedes Soares, C. & Santos T.A., (Eds.), Taylor and Francis, London, UK, Vol 2, pp. 791-796.
Improving extreme wave predictions in the North Atlantic Ocean is an urgent demand in a scenario of climate change. This paper evaluates the wave forecast of NCEP/NOAA for Hurricane Lorenzo the easternmost category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, which occurred in September 2019. The assessment is focused on the Azores archipelago, using wave buoy measurements at Ponta Delgada. The peak of the storm presented Hs of 8 m on October 2nd, which is analyzed in detail. Results show accurate forecasts of Hs for prognostics issued since seven days prior to the event, with small errors around only 0.5 meter for the maximum Hs. A discussion on the time of the peak of the storm, predicted by different forecast cycles, is conducted, where delays and early arrival were reported. It has been found that such discrepancies are mostly related to the storm positioning, pointed as the most critical feature for this event.
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