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Publications
Guedes Soares, C. and Sebastião, P. (2002), “Risk of Oil Spill Pollution off the Portuguese Coast”, Risk Analysis III, WitPress, Southampton, Boston, UK, pp. 337-345
The risk of oil pollution of the Portuguese Coast can be assessed from the risk of oil spills resulting from ship collision in the region and from the uncertainties of the trajectory of that oil given the uncertainties of the weather parameters. The probability distribution of oil spills can be based on the historical data of the accidents that occurred in the area or on a maritime traffic simulation model that is able to predict the risk of accident from a simulated traffic pattern. The uncertainty of the weather parameters can be reflected on a spread of possible trajectories and on the area in the coast where they will reach.
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