|
|
Publications
Wu, B., Tian, H.B., Yan, X.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2020) , “A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks”, Journal of Risk and Reliability, Vol. 234(2), pp. 422-436
Collision is the major type of accident in the maritime transportation, which in the downstream of Yangtze River is even more pronounced due to specific features that have significant impact on the collision consequence, including a special lane for small-sized ships, traffic intensity variation with the tide period, many restricted areas and emergency resources spread along the river. This paper models the collision consequence in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks, considering the causation factors and including as a novel approach the emergency management of maritime accidents. The graphical structures lies on domain experts and on previous works, while the conditional probability tables are developed from historical data. Both the graphical structure and parameters are validated by using the well-known methods, which reflects that the developed model is reasonable. The merits of the proposed consequence estimation model that considers emergency management includes: 1) a detailed description of the collision accident development. 2) consequence estimation result with good accuracy.
If you did not manage to obtain a copy of this paper: Request a copy of this article
For information about all CENTEC publications you can download: Download the Complete List of CENTEC Publications
|