Publications

Guedes Soares, C. and Scotto, M. (2001), “Modelling Uncertainty in Long-Term Predictions of Significant Wave Height”, Ocean Engineering, Vol. 28, Issue 3, pp. 329-342

The paper deals with the application of different methods to estimate the occurrences of high sea states. A case study of the Norwegian continental shelf is considered. The Annuyal Maxima Method and the Peak Over Threshold method are used to obtain return values for 25, 50 and 100 years. Several parametric models are used to obtain return values for significant wave height and to obtain predictions of extremes values. it is shown that the prediction of these sea states depends very much on the tail behaviour of the fitted distribution.

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