Rong, H., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2020), “Collision probability assessment based on uncertainty prediction of ship trajectories”, Developments in the Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures, C. Guedes Soares (Ed.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp. 283-290

The paper presents an approach to assess the ship-ship collision probability of encounter scenarios taking into account the uncertainty in the trajectories of the ships along specific routes. A probabilistic trajectory prediction model that describes the uncertainty in future positions of the ships by continuous probability distributions represented by a Gaussian Process is adopted. The collision probability is formulated as the percentage of the ship trajectories that lead to collisions, assessed by samples of smooth continuous trajectories generated from the Gaussian Process model. The approach is demonstrated in several encounter scenarios and ship routes derived from historical trajectory information provided by Automatic Identification System data.

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