Rong, H., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2019), “Risk of ship near collision scenarios off the coast of Portugal”, 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2019), 22-26 September, Hannover, Germany, pp. 3660-3666.

The maritime areas off the continental coast of Portugal are crossed by a complex pattern of maritime traffic where routes connecting northern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea meet vessels bound to and leaving from national ports. Therefore, the collision risk assessment is of importance for ships passing through this area. In this study, risk indicators including the distance at closest point of approach, the time to closest Point of approach and the relative distance between ships are proposed to assess the collision risk. A mathematical model is constructed based on the collision risk indicators to assess the collision risk of near collision scenarios identified from historical Automatic Identification System data. In addition, in order to gain insight into the spatial distribution of the collision risk, the Kernel Density Estimation method is applied to derive spatial density maps of the collision risk off the continental coast of Portugal. Keywords: AIS data; collision risk; near collision scenarios; Kernel Density Estimation; marine traffic; density map.

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