Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2018), “Adaptive methods for reliability analysis of marine structures”, Proceedings of the ASME 2018 37th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2018), 17-22 June, Madrid, Spain

Although, several methods have been proposed and applied in the reliability analysis of simple structural elements or simplified reliability formulations, the generalised use of reliability approaches in the analysis of complex and realistic structural systems has not been simple and straight-forward [1]. Most of the applications rely on the use of First and Second Order Reliability Methods (FORM/SORM), developed mainly to deal with explicit limit state functions, and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) methods, combined with several variance reduction techniques [2]. In many cases of practical importance, particularly for complex structures, the assessment of structural safety often requires the use of advanced non-linear finite element (FE) analysis. Although FORM/SORM and MCS methods can be adapted to handle with these implicit limit state functions via direct coupling with the finite element code [3], in the case of large structures the numerical expensive evaluation of the limit state function has to be replaced by suitable adaptive approximations. This paper aims at reviewing methods and strategies that have been developed recently for reliability analysis of complex and realistic structural systems using advanced non-linear Finite Element methods. The focus is on adaptive response surface techniques able to provide high quality local approximations in the region of the random variable space that contributes most to the probability of failure. In particular, polynomial regression models, artificial neural networks [4], Kriging models (or Gaussian process models) [5] with adaptive capabilities [6], and their application to the reliability analysis of ship structures is reviewed. Although this paper presents an overview on structural reliability methods and their application, the review is mainly focused on the contribution of the authors to the developments in this area and, therefore, it does not claim to be an extensive general bibliographic review of the subject matter.

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