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Publications
Guedes Soares, C. (1990), “Uncertainty Modelling in Systems Reliability Analysis”, Systems Reliability Assessment, Colombo, A.G. e Saiz de Bustamente, A. (Eds.), Kluwer Acad. Pub., Dordrecht, pp. 285-303
An overview is presented of the methods available to quantify uncertainties and to combine them in a systems reliability analysis. The different sources of uncertainty are identified and a discussion is provided to illustrate their different nature. The methods of reliability analysis are then described showing how they can incorporate parameter and model uncertainty. Finally Bayesian methods are presented illustrating how to update probabilistic statements with new information and how to incorporate parameter and model uncertainty in the reliability predictions.
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