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Publications
Silveira, P., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2016), “Probabilistic modelling of evasive manoeuvring actions to avoid collisions”, Maritime Technology and Engineering 3, Guedes Soares, C. & Santos T. A., (Eds.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK, pp. 887-893
The paper analyses evasive manoeuvring actions in near collisions scenarios using AIS data as the source of information. Near collision situations are identified based on AIS data as a violation of an elliptic ship domain dependent on the ships’ length. An evasive manoeuvring model based on the first order Nomoto model is described. The uncertainties associated with this evasive manoeuvring model are characterized based on information extracted from AIS data and from known correlations between the model’s parameters. Near collision situations are selected from the available AIS data and Monte Carlo simulation is performed to estimate the collision likelihood in these scenarios and minimum distances for all possible manoeuvres.
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