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Publications
Gaspar, B., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2014), “Structural reliability analysis combining Kriging surrogate models with an adaptive trust region method”, ”, 7th International Conference on Computational Stochastic Mechanics (CSM7)”, 15-18 June, Santorini, Greece.
In the present paper an adaptive Kriging-based trust region method is proposed for structural reliability analysis with computationally demanding numerical models. The method combines an adaptive trust region method with Kriging interpolation models as surrogates for the true implicit limit state function. After convergence of the adaptive method to the design point a failure probability prediction based on the first-order reliability method is provided. The accuracy of this prediction can then be verified or improved through Monte Carlo simulation with importance sampling at the design point without requiring additional evaluations of the true implicit limit state function. The proposed method is in principle applicable to any component reliability assessment problem, with a reasonable limit for the dimensionality of the basic random variables space. It is particularly suitable for problems involving nonlinear limit state functions defined implicitly by computationally demanding numerical models. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method are demonstrated with a numerical example of practical importance involving a nonlinear limit state function described implicitly by an advanced nonlinear finite element analysis structural model.
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