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Publications
Guedes Soares, C. and Scotto, M.G. (2011), “Long Term and Extreme Value Models of Wave Data”, Maritime Engineering and Technology, Guedes Soares et al. (Eds),Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp. 97-108
A review is presented of work performed on the development of long term models of wave parameters in different time scales and with different objectives. Long term wave data is based on the parameters describing sea states and predictions can be required for few days in which case autoregressive models are capable of dealing with the memory in the process. For longer time scales, of duration of various years, long term probability models allow studies of availability, with predictions of durations of time windows and allow studies of wave induced fatigue in structures. The expected largest values are typically predicted by extreme value models and they can be used for the design of structures against extreme loads. All these three types of models are discussed in this paper, together with the available databases, as well as the uncertainty involved in their use.
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