Publications

Guedes Soares, C., Fonseca, N. and Ramos, J. (1998), “Prediction of Voyage Duraction with Weather Constraints”, Proceedings of the International Conference on Motions and Manoeuvrability”, Royal Institute of Naval Architects, London, 18-19 February, Paper 4, pp. 1-13

A method is presented for the prediction of the speed and movement of a shi accounting for the delaying effects due to environmental conditions. Such a tool is intended to be used on shore based Vessel Traffic Management Information Systems (VTMIS). It will allow the estimate of the ships position between the reported points and also to estimate the expected time of arrival at ports (ETA). The method accounts for the hydrodynamic characteristic of the hull, the characteristics of the propeller, the dynamic behaviour of the engine and also the effects of wind and waves on the ship. The reduced forward speed is obtained by equating the propulsive forces with the resistance forces. The propulsive forces are dependent of the power setting applied to the engine, which is reflected in the rpm of the propeller. The resistance to the advance is decomposed in a number of components, which are calculated separately. Since all forces involved are dependent on the ship speed, the result is obtained by an iterative procedure. Full scale data is compared with the predicted positions for seveal voyages of a tanker in the Atlantic Ocean, showing the good performance of the method.

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