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Publications
Xu, M.C., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2012), “Polynomial Based Response Surface Approach for Probabilistic Modelling of the Ultimate Strength of Stiffened Panels”, 20th Symposium on Theory and Practice of Shipbuilding (SORTA 2012), 27-29 September, Zagreb, Croatia
The purpose of present paper is to investigate the accuracy of different polynomial based response surface models for probabilistic modelling of the ultimate strength of stiffened panels under uniaxial compressive load. To reduce the number of variables considered in the response surface approximation, a sensitivity analysis is performed to estimate the importance of the input parameters and to identify which ones contribute more to the uncertainty on the ultimate strength of the stiffened panels. The most important input parameters are then used in the response surface approximation. The ultimate strength of stiffened panels under uniaxial compressive load is assessed by Finite Element Analysis (FEA) for 100 and 1000 input samples generated by Monte Carlo simulation, which are then used to fit the response surface models. The response surface models used include first and second order polynomials with and without interaction terms. The accuracy of the different response surface models is assessed by comparing the probabilistic models of the ultimate strength of the stiffened panels derived from the response surface approximations with the one derived on the basis of a large sample of 5000 FEAs obtained by Monte Carlo simulation.
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