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Publications
Bhardwaj, U., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2024), Probabilistic risk model of ship allision accidents with offshore platforms, International Innovation & Cooperation in Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Conference (ICNAME 2024), 22-25 August, Harbin, China.
This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment and estimation of the probability of allision accidents between vessels and offshore platforms. The objective is to propose a Bayesian Network probabilistic framework for quantifying allision accident probability derived from a novel technique that utilises incidental data. A data set of allision incidents from various open-source agencies is prepared and analysed. The key features of incidents’ causation are discussed and presented in terms of causal factors and basic causes. Then, a Bayesian network-based probabilistic risk model is developed that incorporates basic causes, causal factors and consequence levels. Using a recent novel technique, the failure probability of basic causes is derived from annual occurrence rates of allision accidents. The Bayesian Network model is used to predict the annual probability of allision accidents. The paper discusses some vital elements, such as the sensitivity of the allision probability with respect to basic causes. The methodology is transparent and holistic in providing better discerning of the causation probability of allision accidents.
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