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Group of Safety and Logistics of Maritime Transportation > 5.1 Structural Safety > Publications
Guia, J., Teixeira, A.P. and Guedes Soares, C. (2016), “Sensitivity analysis on the optimum hull girder safety level of a Suezmax tanker”, Maritime Technology and Engineering 3, Guedes Soares, C. & Santos T. A., (Eds.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK, pp. 823-830
The aim of this study is to perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimum hull girder safety level of a Suezmax tanker calculated using a cost benefit analysis, as proposed by the IMO’s Formal Safety Assessment Guidelines. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate the influence of the input variables of the cost model on the optimum safety level. Starting from a base operational scenario, sensitivity measures given by the standardized regression coefficients are obtained by multiple regression analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation. The effects of the percentage of oil spilled, the probability of loss of crew and the cost of steelwork are evaluated. Finally, the standardized regression coefficients are calculated for two different operational scenarios that differ on the volume of the oil spill that is expected to reach the shoreline, the cargo condition of the ship and the probability of loss of human life.
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