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Publications
Hu, X.N., Fang, G.S., Ge, Y.J. and Guedes Soares, C. (2024), Uncertainty in the estimation of extreme winds offshore Portugal, Advances in Maritime Technology and Engineering, Guedes Soares, C. & Santos T.A. (Eds.), Taylor and Francis, London, UK, pp. 643-649.
Extreme value estimation of ocean wind speed is typically based on frequency analysis of collected observed data and the quantile estimation with high return periods usually depends on extrapolation, inevitably introducing large uncertainties as the length of most observed dataset is finite. To better estimate extreme values, the quantification of quantile uncertainty with the standard error is implemented. Based on reanalysis winds of three Portuguese meteorological stations, this study carries out extreme value analysis using generalized extreme value and Gamma distributions. Combining the maximum likelihood method, simplified models of the standard error are utilized to quantify estimation uncertainties. Results show that extreme analysis with the standard error can provide more precise estimated quantiles, especially for high return periods. Besides, to obtain more information of the entire quantile distribution, the quadratic polynomial model is proposed to calculate the skewness and kurtosis of quantiles.
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