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Publicações
Guedes Soares, C. e Sebastião, P. (2001), “Uncertainty in Predictions of Oil Spill Trajectories”, Engineering for Ocean & Offshore Structures and Coastal Engineering Development, 18-21 Dezembro, Singapore
A method to predict the uncertainty of surface oil spill trajectories is presented. It is applicable when the mean values and standard deviations of the components of the currents and wind velocities are known. In this case, for any particular spill location, the method allows to predict the points where an oil spill reaches a certain coastline, given the uncertainty of the met-ocean parameters. It gives also the sensitivity of final trajectory to each environmental parameter. The method has been applied to oil spills simulated from points along the Portuguese Coast and allowed to predict the extreme points of the coastline that are likely to be affected by the spill. It is also shown that the relative importance of each component of the winds and currents to the final spill trajectory differ from one spill location to another, given a set of met-ocean conditions.
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