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Publicações
Costa, B., Jacinto, C., Teixeira, A.P. e Guedes Soares, C. (2018), “Causal analysis of accidents at work in a shipyard complemented with Bayesian Nets modeling”, Progress in Maritime Technology and Engineering, Guedes Soares, C. & Santos T.A., (Eds.), Taylor and Francis, London, UK, pp. 421-430
This paper analyses the causality of occupational accidents occurring in a Portuguese shipyard during a time span of two years, 2014 and 2015. The objective was to identify not only the immediate causes of the accidents, but also their underlying (latent) causal factors at the organizational level, aiming to identify opportunities for improvement and, in particular, to reduce accident rates in the three most critical services (business units) of the company. A second objective of this work is to explore a way of modelling, quantitatively, the system studied from the causation point of view (cause-to-effect relationships). The method for Recording, Investigation and Analysis of Accidents at Work (RIAAT) was adopted to achieve the first goal. This approach offers a systematic and comprehensive structure where accidents are studied in-depth, using a "standard form" that guides the analysis and provides assistance for interviewing the injured workers. A Bayesian Network (BN) model of the causal relationships and consequences of the occupational accidents is then developed and used to simulate and analyse quantitatively different scenarios (i.e., the different accident patterns found in the first analysis). The results of the first analysis have characterized the "typical accidents" of this shipyard (defined here as the most frequent accidents), which mainly involve "being struck by objects" (25%), "crash on or against / falls" (21%) and "physical stress on the musculoskeletal system" (20%). The in-depth analysis disclosed their causal factors (active and latent failures) and causal relationships. The BN model has represented graphically the whole set of accidents analysed, and has highlighted the causal links of the “typical accidents”. A tangible plan of action is proposed, in which three categories of preventive measures are suggested: Engineering, Training & Awareness and Management & Control measures. In addition, the BN modelling proved to be a very good supplement to the traditional analysis of accidents.
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