Publicações

Zhang, J.F., Teixeira, A.P., Guedes Soares, C. e Yan, X. (2018), “Quantitative assessment of collision risk influence factors in the Tianjin port”, Safety Science, Vol. 110, pp. 363-371

Collisions between ships is one of the most frequent types of accidents in approaches to Tianjin port, accounting for 65% of all accidents. This paper presents a quantitative maritime risk assessment methodology that uses Bayesian rules and a least squares estimation method to identify the key factors contributing to collision accidents. The approach relates accident data with traffic data via pairwise comparisons between the collision risks under different navigation conditions and different types of ships. The results indicate that small ships with lengths smaller than 100m have a considerably higher collision risk than larger ships. The results also indicate that improving safety for dredgers and oil tankers is one of the most effective ways to reduce the overall collision risk. The collision probability of ships without a pilot is approximately nine times higher than that of ships with a pilot. The analysis also demonstrates that further steps should be undertaken to reduce the risk during strong wind conditions with the goal of decreasing to at least the same level as normal conditions. The results obtained are useful for managers, providing support for decisions related to the control of collision risk.

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