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Guedes Soares, C. e Teixeira, A. (2000), “Probabilistic Modeling of Offshore Fires”, Fire Safety, Vol. 34, pp. 25-45

Probabilistic models are proposed to represent the heat radiated from offshore pool and jet fires. The basic variables that influence the shape of the flame of a pool and a jet fire are described as well as the heat transfer mechanisms from the flame. A first order second moment approach is proposed to describe the uncertainty of the estimates of the radiated heat as a function of the uncertainty in the input variables as well as the sensitivity of the results to the different variables. An example of the radiation in a tubular member is provided, identifying the critical variables from the uncertainty point of view.

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