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Publicações
Wu, B., Yan, X.P., Wang, Y., Zhang, D. e Guedes Soares, C. (2015), “A Sequential Barrier-based Model to Evaluate Human Reliability in Maritime Accident Process”, 3rd International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS 2015 ), 25-28 Junho, Wuhan, China
Human reliability is considered as the predominant causation factor in maritime accidents. The previous researches on human reliability analysis are reviewed in this paper, although these works have benefited us a lot for accident prevention, few researches focused on the human reliability in the developing stages of maritime accident process. This paper first thoroughly reviewed the existed sequential accident process model, including the Swiss cheese model, accident causation model, risk-scenario based model, then the merits and weakness of these models are compared between each other. To make a feasible and reasonable assessment on the human reliability, a sequential safety barrier-based model which includes four safety barriers are proposed by incorporating the safety barrier (SB) and risk scenario together. Moreover, the failure modes of different safety barriers, which consider the difficulty of these barriers’ implementation, are also presented to further analyze the human reliability. The developing states (initiating state, mid states, and end state) and accident scenario of different accident types are also proposed under the framework of sequential safety barrier. Finally, this proposed model is introduced to investigate 97 maritime accident reports issued by Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) of China from 2000 to 2010. From the result, majority of the maritime accidents developed from the proposed accident process model (91.8%, N=97). The result also demonstrates that different measures in terms of the developing stages should be adopted to enhance the human reliability in the maritime accident process. Moreover, multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) reveals that the human error is closely related with the catastrophic accident; however, it also reveals that majority of the accidents can be avoided and prevented in the earlier stages.
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