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Publicações
Antão, P., Grande, O., Trucco, P. e Guedes Soares, C. (2008), “Analysis of Maritime Accident Data with BBN Models”, Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications, 2008, Martorell et al. (Eds.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK
The present paper describes a study aimed to develop a model for maritime accidents by applying Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) in which the main components, i.e., type of ship accident, type of accident and consequences would be present. For that purpose the maritime accident database of the Portuguese Maritime Authority was used. It includes 857 validated accidents from the last registered 10 years. Bayesian analysis helped to obtain estimates for conditional probabilities of maritime accidents in the Portuguese waters given certain scenarios. For the quantification of the Conditional Probability Tables (CPT) real data of the database was used without any expert judgement elicitation, which therefore reduces the uncertainty typically associated with this type of elicitation. In overall the results show that it is possible to develop a simple model, derived from real data, to analyse the contribution of major risk factors and to support decision making.
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