Grupo de Segurança e Logística do Transporte Marítimo > 5.4 Segurança Marítima e Fatores Humanos > Publicações

Santos, T.A. e Guedes Soares, C. (2005), “Monte-Carlo Simulation of Damaged Ship Survivability”, Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment, Vol. 219, Part M, pp. 25-35

In this paper a probabilistic methodology for assessing damaged ship survivability based on the Monte-Carlo simulation is further developed. The damage condition is generated using the most recent statistical distributions of damage location and extent, derived during the HARDER European research project, coupled to an algorithm that identifies the damaged compartments. The survivability of the ship in each damage condition is evaluated using the formulae recently proposed at SLF46, which are partly based on the Static Equivalent Method and partly on a more conventional approach. The Monte-Carlo Simulation technique is applied taking in consideration the uncertainties related both to the damage condition and the loading condition at the time of the accident. This methodology is applied to a passenger Ro-Ro ship, allowing a direct estimate of the damaged ship survivability in terms of number of capsizes. The effects of changes in the vertical position of the centre of gravity and in the sea state distribution at the moment of accident are also evaluated. Finally, a number of conclusions are indicated.

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http://pim.sagepub.com/content/219/1/25.abstract



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