Publications

Mainardi, A. and Santos, T.A. (2016), “Forecasting cargo throughput in Portuguese Ports using causal methods”, Maritime Technology and Engineering 3, Guedes Soares, C. & Santos T. A., (Eds.), Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK, pp. 81-89

Reliable port throughput forecasts are of the utmost importance for ports. Given the high investment and long time needed to improve the port infrastructure and superstructure, a good balance is required between port development and expected throughput. An over-dimensioned port will lead to revenues not covering the capital and operating costs, while an under-dimensioned port will introduce delays in the process of cargo loading and unloading, discouraging ship-owners to come back to the port. Adequate port development thus requires reliable port throughput forecasts. This paper presents a preliminary study for a long-term forecast of throughput in Portuguese ports. Data from 2001 to 2014 about port throughput and industrial and economic indicators are gathered from different sources and presented. Subsequently qualitative and quantitative correlations between time series are explored. Finally all the considerations made are put together to forecast the container throughput in Portuguese ports. Conclusions are drawn.

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